Wednesday 29 August 2007

Iran Next

President Bush warns of a pending nuclear holocaust in the Middle East. President Ahmadinejad of Iran mocks the west by saying Iran is ready to fill a soon to be created power vacuum. The standoff between the US and Iran could soon be reaching terrifying proportions. The Iranians appear to have convinced themselves that the west in general and the US in particular are powerless: too afraid to confront the Islamic Republic. In their game of brinkmanship, the Iranians are partially right. Fear is tangible, for the west can guess at the consequences of a confrontation with Iran: terrorism in western cities, possible Iranian action against the oilfields of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, an attack on Israel via Hizbullah, mining of the gulf shipping lanes, greater chaos in Iraq. All coupled with the likely turmoil in western markets and economies. The west is of course, not completely powerless, if they can remain unified. Bush, apparently in a move to appease any waiverers, called for an alliance to impose economic sanctions. In the long term, if properly imposed, these will undoubtedly hurt the Iranian people but will be propagandised to show the Iranian regime opposing western imperialism. Sanctions, however, will not stop Iran from developing a nuclear bomb.
The prospect of a fanatical, Islamist state, which runs proxy terrorist armies, being armed with nuclear weapons is simply unthinkable. It is too terrible to contemplate. Bush has proved that he is not averse to taking the military option and given Iran’s determination to advance its nuclear ambitions, another way forward, in the form of a North Korea type compromise, is not likely to be found. A nuclear armed Iran, holding a strategically vital region, and the west, to ransom, with the possibility of other regional powers pushing for their own ‘bomb’ or the probable devastation of an armed conflict with its global consequence. Bush is damned if he confronts Iran and he is damned if he does not. In one form or another, the future looks bleak.

No comments: